In the initial round of college football’s first playoff, players at favored Alabama and Florida State knew they had to do well to win, but saw the real challenge as the next game—against each other.
By contrast, players at the underdogs, Oregon and Ohio State, believed they would need to have an exceptional performance to win.
As it happened, Oregon’s low-rated defense shut Florida State down, creating a blowout where people had expected a shootout. Next, Ohio State solidly outplayed Alabama on both sides of the ball.
In the final, Oregon was favored, and its players expected that just executing without mistakes was the key. But Ohio State’s team was still in first round mode: we’ll have to have an exceptional game to win, they thought.
Ohio State will be favored in all of its games next year, except perhaps the last one if they stumble along the way. The fact is, most everyone is back, and the replacement players are judged at least as good as those who’ve moved on.
In no case will anyone, most definitely including the players, think it will take an exceptional effort for Ohio State to win. And that’s why it will be extremely difficult for them to repeat.
