Daesh, also known as the “Islamic State,” is a very unusual
kind of political entity. Notably, it has no visible foreign policy and no
allies. Nor, given its behavior, does it even have the prospect of building any
kind of alliance. Even the most analogous state, North Korea, has commercial
and political agreements with a neighbor. And, given that the neighbor in
question is China, that’s consequential. Daesh, by contrast, is in a state of
extreme hostility if not actual warfare with all of its neighbors and, unlike
North Korea, has no direct access to the sea.
Given that Daesh is poor, surrounded, universally reviled
and with no plausible strategy to reverse these circumstances, its days as a
viable political entity have been numbered since it was created.
The news today, March 24 of 2016, makes one wonder if Daesh’s
end times aren’t beginning and if the final days of its state-like functions
aren’t just months away.
The news today carries two key points: 1) Syrian forces have taken, or are about to
retake Palmyra; and 2) Iraqi forces have begun to move toward Mosul from the
south. If sustained, these two events should be very consequential and should
most likely lead to quick change. “Quick” means months.
